Thursday, November 28, 2013
World Affairs Council Recognizes Anthony Alfidi as Featured Member
There's no more appropriate way for me to celebrate Thanksgiving Day than to engage in shameless self-promotion. The World Affairs Council of Northern California has recognized me as a Featured Member. I have been very active in WAC events since they accepted me as a Veteran Fellow earlier this year at WorldAffairs 2013. Read the summary of that conference I published here at Third Eye OSINT. Check out this photo of me in action hosting a breakfast table during WorldAffairs 2013.
I don't know how long that Featured Member page will remain active so I'm reproducing the text below. I contributed those answers myself and I'm confident the WAC will appreciate the publicity I'm sending their way. I certainly appreciate the publicity they're giving me.
How long have you been a member?
I have been an active member since March 2013, although I did try a one-year membership in the Young Professionals Forum (now called Next Generation) from 2005-06.
What first drew you to the World Affairs Council?
I was a member of the first-ever class of Veteran Fellows at WorldAffairs 2013. I wrote about my incredible experience on my blog Third Eye OSINT.
The speaker lineup was superb. I finished the conference determined to get the most out of Council membership and to be a speaker at a Council event someday.
What was your favorite lecture/speaker/event at the Council?
Somaly Mam! Hearing her speak about her efforts to mitigate human trafficking proved that the business community has a role to play in treating people fairly in developing nations. She has incredible courage and is the ultimate success story.
How has the World Affairs Council inspired you?
I have been a US Army officer for almost two decades, with significant time in Iraq and other countries. Military campaigns must comport with knowledge of geography, history, socioeconomic factors, and cultural specifics to fulfill our nation's strategy. The World Affairs Council has inspired me to make deep background research a priority in strategic planning. I am further inspired to seek membership in the Council on Foreign Relations and the Pacific Council on International Policy to contribute a military analyst's perspective to high-level policy dialogue.
If you could create your own tagline for the Council, what would it be?
“The World Affairs Council brings leaders in diplomacy, development, conflict, and governance to San Francisco from every spot on the globe.”
I don't know how long that Featured Member page will remain active so I'm reproducing the text below. I contributed those answers myself and I'm confident the WAC will appreciate the publicity I'm sending their way. I certainly appreciate the publicity they're giving me.
How long have you been a member?
I have been an active member since March 2013, although I did try a one-year membership in the Young Professionals Forum (now called Next Generation) from 2005-06.
What first drew you to the World Affairs Council?
I was a member of the first-ever class of Veteran Fellows at WorldAffairs 2013. I wrote about my incredible experience on my blog Third Eye OSINT.
The speaker lineup was superb. I finished the conference determined to get the most out of Council membership and to be a speaker at a Council event someday.
What was your favorite lecture/speaker/event at the Council?
Somaly Mam! Hearing her speak about her efforts to mitigate human trafficking proved that the business community has a role to play in treating people fairly in developing nations. She has incredible courage and is the ultimate success story.
How has the World Affairs Council inspired you?
I have been a US Army officer for almost two decades, with significant time in Iraq and other countries. Military campaigns must comport with knowledge of geography, history, socioeconomic factors, and cultural specifics to fulfill our nation's strategy. The World Affairs Council has inspired me to make deep background research a priority in strategic planning. I am further inspired to seek membership in the Council on Foreign Relations and the Pacific Council on International Policy to contribute a military analyst's perspective to high-level policy dialogue.
If you could create your own tagline for the Council, what would it be?
“The World Affairs Council brings leaders in diplomacy, development, conflict, and governance to San Francisco from every spot on the globe.”
Tuesday, November 12, 2013
BRICS Offer Hollow Talk On Development Bank And Reinsurance
It's hard to say just what the BRICS are all about. They share no common culture or language. They mostly have scarce natural resources with the exception of Russia's hydrocarbons, South Africa's minerals, and China's hydroelectricity. They compensate for their differences by finding things to do together, proudly stating to the world they they do not subscribe to the Anglo-American financial hegemony . . . except of course when it's absolutely necessary.
The BRICS have proposed to create their own BRICS Development Bank. They are not ready to launch it because they have not funded its contingent reserve, which would require them all to liquidate sufficient US dollar holdings. Selling US$100B worth of Treasuries is no small task and would not escape the currency markets' attention. It remains to be seen whether the reserve will be a mix of the participants' currencies or some instrument resembling the IMF's Special Drawing Rights.
They also seek to establish their own transnational reinsurance firm. I believe the public stance that it will serve to underwrite infrastructure investments is only one rationale. The reinsurance firm and development bank together could theoretically send transaction confirmations that will not be subject to US interdiction through its control of the SWIFT network. This alternative financial regime would be one way to avoid punitive sanctions against the BRICS' trading partners. Setting up an alternative communication network means designing protocols for encryption, transmission, and storage that the NSA cannot penetrate. No alternative financial hegemony can emerge until the BRICS own a secure network.
The BRICS are not ready for prime time as a geopolitical bloc. This is not to say they cannot eventually emerge as an alternative to the US-led Atlantic alliance but consensus will be difficult with no clearly dominant power. They have difficulty coordinating policy because they do not share common cultures, borders, or history. Contrast this with US leadership during the Cold War. Its economic strength enabled it to control institutions like the IMF and World Bank that could enforce international norms. The BRICS bloc is about as coordinated and purposeful as the Non-Aligned Movement in the Cold War, and it's proving to be just as ineffective. They should stick to their original use as an acronym among Goldman Sachs' research ideas.
The BRICS have proposed to create their own BRICS Development Bank. They are not ready to launch it because they have not funded its contingent reserve, which would require them all to liquidate sufficient US dollar holdings. Selling US$100B worth of Treasuries is no small task and would not escape the currency markets' attention. It remains to be seen whether the reserve will be a mix of the participants' currencies or some instrument resembling the IMF's Special Drawing Rights.
They also seek to establish their own transnational reinsurance firm. I believe the public stance that it will serve to underwrite infrastructure investments is only one rationale. The reinsurance firm and development bank together could theoretically send transaction confirmations that will not be subject to US interdiction through its control of the SWIFT network. This alternative financial regime would be one way to avoid punitive sanctions against the BRICS' trading partners. Setting up an alternative communication network means designing protocols for encryption, transmission, and storage that the NSA cannot penetrate. No alternative financial hegemony can emerge until the BRICS own a secure network.
The BRICS are not ready for prime time as a geopolitical bloc. This is not to say they cannot eventually emerge as an alternative to the US-led Atlantic alliance but consensus will be difficult with no clearly dominant power. They have difficulty coordinating policy because they do not share common cultures, borders, or history. Contrast this with US leadership during the Cold War. Its economic strength enabled it to control institutions like the IMF and World Bank that could enforce international norms. The BRICS bloc is about as coordinated and purposeful as the Non-Aligned Movement in the Cold War, and it's proving to be just as ineffective. They should stick to their original use as an acronym among Goldman Sachs' research ideas.
Saturday, August 31, 2013
US-South Korea Ties Leave North Korea In The Dust
The US and South Korea get along like old pals. The US-Korea Free Trade Agreement (KORUS FTA) has been active for over a year. The ROK's US embassy actively promotes US-ROK business ties under the KORUS FTA through US Korea Connect. The Korea Economic Institute of America lobbies in the US on behalf of the South Korean government's economic initiatives. This is a more mature approach to influence than the Koreagate troubles of past decades. I reviewed OECD StatExtracts on FDI flows by partner country. It's surprising to note that Korea's FDI in the US was US$6.2B in 2011 while the US's FDI in South Korea was $US1.6B.
The US and South Korea are on the same sheet of music diplomatically. They oppose North Korea's nuclear development and the Kim dynasty's placement of its self-interest ahead of the welfare of the North Korean people. North Korea detains about 1% of its population in concentration camps. The US and South Korea do not punish political dissent with imprisonment or forced labor.
North Korea envies the attention the US lavishes on its healthier twin to the south. That's why it lashes out with military provocations and drags out even the simplest diplomatic issues for months. The US-DPRK "New York" channel has been dormant for months because North Korea has nothing new to offer. The Kim regime likes to imprison some random missionary when it needs attention but delays release negotiations to extort for foreign aid.
Asians can take responsibility for their own security once they outgrow what ROK President Park Gyun-Hye calls the "Asian paradox" where political cooperation has not kept pace with economic integration. The US will remain engaged in inter-Korean relations until Asian powers resolve that paradox. They can begin such resolution by working on matters unrelated to North Korea's problems. Start with climate change and disaster relief.
The Kim regime in the North makes lots of bombastic threats. It has little to show for decades of hostility to its neighbors and paranoia. This satirically dubbed video of "Pyongyang Traffic Girls From The Sky" may be all the North can muster as a threat. I wouldn't mind seeing hot chicks drop out the sky if they were friendly.
The US and South Korea are on the same sheet of music diplomatically. They oppose North Korea's nuclear development and the Kim dynasty's placement of its self-interest ahead of the welfare of the North Korean people. North Korea detains about 1% of its population in concentration camps. The US and South Korea do not punish political dissent with imprisonment or forced labor.
North Korea envies the attention the US lavishes on its healthier twin to the south. That's why it lashes out with military provocations and drags out even the simplest diplomatic issues for months. The US-DPRK "New York" channel has been dormant for months because North Korea has nothing new to offer. The Kim regime likes to imprison some random missionary when it needs attention but delays release negotiations to extort for foreign aid.
Asians can take responsibility for their own security once they outgrow what ROK President Park Gyun-Hye calls the "Asian paradox" where political cooperation has not kept pace with economic integration. The US will remain engaged in inter-Korean relations until Asian powers resolve that paradox. They can begin such resolution by working on matters unrelated to North Korea's problems. Start with climate change and disaster relief.
The Kim regime in the North makes lots of bombastic threats. It has little to show for decades of hostility to its neighbors and paranoia. This satirically dubbed video of "Pyongyang Traffic Girls From The Sky" may be all the North can muster as a threat. I wouldn't mind seeing hot chicks drop out the sky if they were friendly.
Tuesday, August 27, 2013
Poised For Syria
The world waits for something to happen in Syria in response to an alleged atrocity, although forensic analysis of the scene in question is not complete as of this writing. The general outlines of the geopolitical drivers are pretty obvious.
Western media already announced the general targets in open sources, giving the Syrians time to clear out. The destruction of the presumed targets will not hamper the Assad regime's campaign against the Islamic rebels. Indeed, replacing the destroyed systems with new Russian equipment fulfills that country's support contract with Syria, throwing Moscow a bone if it elects not to escalate. Note Moscow's muted response; Putin has not announced countermeasures but merely shakes his head diplomatically. The end result is that the Assad regime continues to its likely victory over Islamic radicals and the US satisfies world opinion that it "did something."
The primary concern now is drawing the correct parallel with history. If the Kosovo Air Campaign is a template, any strike will be over in a fortnight.
Western media already announced the general targets in open sources, giving the Syrians time to clear out. The destruction of the presumed targets will not hamper the Assad regime's campaign against the Islamic rebels. Indeed, replacing the destroyed systems with new Russian equipment fulfills that country's support contract with Syria, throwing Moscow a bone if it elects not to escalate. Note Moscow's muted response; Putin has not announced countermeasures but merely shakes his head diplomatically. The end result is that the Assad regime continues to its likely victory over Islamic radicals and the US satisfies world opinion that it "did something."
The primary concern now is drawing the correct parallel with history. If the Kosovo Air Campaign is a template, any strike will be over in a fortnight.
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