tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4785932381683366062024-03-12T16:19:08.230-07:00Third Eye OSINTThird Eye OSINT publishes enlightened commentary on geopolitics. The articles will always reflect a pro-American personal viewpoint, because the author is a loyal citizen of the United States of America. This blog is a wholly-owned project of Alfidi Capital.Anthony Alfidihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11420163177787702821noreply@blogger.comBlogger125125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-478593238168336606.post-48052317441209657112023-12-31T11:29:00.000-08:002023-12-31T11:29:06.158-08:00The Haiku of OSINT for 12/31/23<div style="text-align: left;">More wars are brewing</div><div style="text-align: left;">Global South boiling again</div><div style="text-align: left;">Conflict lies ahead</div>Anthony Alfidihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11420163177787702821noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-478593238168336606.post-12309763281319492512022-12-31T21:35:00.001-08:002022-12-31T21:35:15.521-08:00The Haiku of OSINT for 12/31/22<div style="text-align: left;">Special observer</div><div style="text-align: left;">Sees all that there is to see</div><div style="text-align: left;">True sight beyond sight</div>Anthony Alfidihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11420163177787702821noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-478593238168336606.post-57105025725147063522022-02-24T20:05:00.001-08:002022-02-24T20:05:57.966-08:00The Haiku of OSINT for 02/24/22<div style="text-align: left;"><a href="https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/ukraine-russia-news-02-24-22-intl/index.html" rel="nofollow">Russian invasion</a></div><div style="text-align: left;">Ukraine fighting for its life</div><div style="text-align: left;">Sad new age of war</div>Anthony Alfidihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11420163177787702821noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-478593238168336606.post-54038663364326314312021-12-31T16:09:00.003-08:002021-12-31T16:09:39.897-08:00The Haiku of OSINT for 12/31/21<div style="text-align: left;"><a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/12/28/iran-nuclear-deal-jcpoa-vienna-capabilities-biden/" rel="nofollow">Iran's nuke tension</a></div><div style="text-align: left;">How to slow down their program</div><div style="text-align: left;">Diplomats debate</div>Anthony Alfidihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11420163177787702821noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-478593238168336606.post-75403422290054237062021-08-31T20:03:00.001-07:002021-08-31T20:03:19.608-07:00The Haiku of OSINT for 08/31/21<div style="text-align: left;">End of Afghan war</div><div style="text-align: left;">Our coalition exit</div><div style="text-align: left;">Sad time in Kabul</div>Anthony Alfidihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11420163177787702821noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-478593238168336606.post-34014560948571864512020-12-31T07:53:00.000-08:002020-12-31T07:53:20.717-08:00The Haiku of OSINT for 12/31/20<div style="text-align: left;">Russian disinfo</div><div style="text-align: left;">Real threat to America</div><div style="text-align: left;">Must fight back strongly</div>Anthony Alfidihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11420163177787702821noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-478593238168336606.post-15999014404873019262019-12-31T13:53:00.000-08:002019-12-31T13:53:04.046-08:00The Haiku of OSINT for 12/31/19<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
Cyber intrusions<br />
Adversaries hack systems<br />
Data-driven war</div>
Anthony Alfidihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11420163177787702821noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-478593238168336606.post-68610045808753990882018-12-31T16:12:00.000-08:002018-12-31T16:12:25.417-08:00The Haiku of OSINT for 12/31/18<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
Allies still matter<br />
Free world strength comes from numbers<br />
Same noble purpose</div>
Anthony Alfidihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11420163177787702821noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-478593238168336606.post-44653175770096633042017-12-31T22:00:00.000-08:002017-12-31T22:00:03.815-08:00The Haiku of OSINT for 12/31/17<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<a href="http://www.cnn.com/2017/12/30/world/iran-protests-issues/index.html">Iran protesters</a><br />
Challenge radical mullahs<br />
Demand their freedom</div>
Anthony Alfidihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11420163177787702821noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-478593238168336606.post-19565874763424041202017-03-08T22:25:00.000-08:002017-03-08T22:25:37.133-08:00International Women's Day 2017<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
The world stands up and cheers today for <a href="https://www.internationalwomensday.com/">International Women's Day</a> in 2017 because half the planet's population has been marginalized for most of recorded history. I supported this day by attending <a href="http://www.worldaffairs.org/events/event/1696" rel="nofollow">tonight's town hall at the World Affairs Council of Northern California</a>. Representatives from <a href="https://www.careergirls.org/">Career Girls</a> and the <a href="https://www.globalfundforwomen.org/">Global Fund for Women</a> were on hand to describe their projects, along with a multimedia artist who shared examples of her work. It's easy to look at their success stories and think that gender parity is on solid ground. The global numbers show how much work remains to be done.<br />
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<a href="https://www.oecd.org/gender/data/genderwagegap.htm">The OECD Gender Data Portal publishes data describing a global gender wage gap.</a> We can go further than numbers by assessing the gap's impact on global systems. <a href="https://www.weforum.org/reports/the-global-gender-gap-report-2016">The World Economic Forum publishes its own annual Global Gender Gap Report.</a> The gap in numbers is taking a long time to close, but closing it should be a moral imperative given the crucial contributions women have always made to the global economy. <a href="http://www.unwomen.org/zh/what-we-do/economic-empowerment/facts-and-figures" rel="nofollow">The United Nations Entity for Gender Equality and the Empowerment of Women (aka UN Women) describes the impact of female economic empowerment in detail.</a><br />
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Women don't need me to speak for them. Their work in the modern world speaks for itself, and deserves recognition.</div>
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Anthony Alfidihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11420163177787702821noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-478593238168336606.post-45734770675117299142017-02-19T19:00:00.000-08:002017-02-19T19:00:44.583-08:00The Haiku of OSINT for 02/19/17<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
Study some region<br />
Know culture and history<br />
Be the top expert</div>
Anthony Alfidihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11420163177787702821noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-478593238168336606.post-86378693489239691282016-11-04T08:50:00.000-07:002016-11-04T08:50:19.695-07:00The Haiku of OSINT for 11/04/16<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
Thinking strategy<br />
Consider region actors<br />
How they seek power</div>
Anthony Alfidihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11420163177787702821noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-478593238168336606.post-29098549871702092222016-01-25T21:57:00.000-08:002016-01-25T21:57:09.882-08:00The Haiku of OSINT for 01/25/16<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
Multifaith talking<br />
Much holiness all around<br />
Not much for action</div>
Anthony Alfidihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11420163177787702821noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-478593238168336606.post-33581791315792275622016-01-25T21:47:00.001-08:002016-01-25T21:47:50.827-08:00From Interfaith Dialogue To Multifaith Polylogue<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
I learned a new phrase today at the <a href="http://www.commonwealthclub.org/">Commonwealth Club</a>: "multifaith polylogue." It's the hip new trend sweeping the interfaith dialogue community. Look for it in the <a href="https://www.parliamentofreligions.org/">Parliament of the World's Religions</a> as participants broaden the discourse. Theologians have talked across faith divisions for millennia. Talk is cheap; deeds are worth more than words.<br />
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People of different faiths can discover that they share interests in mundane things like sports and the arts. More importantly, the Abrahamic religions all share narratives emphasizing charitable works toward strangers and the less fortunate. The <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seven_Laws_of_Noah">Noahide Laws</a> offer Gentiles a path to righteous recognition in Judaism. Other faiths should be so generous.<br />
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I wonder whether faith conversations travel across civilization's fault lines. One civilization axis for Judaism / Christianity / Islam can find links between the Torah, Bible, and Quran with little difficulty because they all originated from the Middle East's mystery cults and wisdom traditions. Another axis for Hinduism and Buddhism could account for the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Syncretism">syncretism</a> of Asian traditions. Taoism and Stoicism developed independently but their modern adherents may be astonished at their similarities.<br />
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<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Karen_Armstrong">Karen Armstrong</a>'s <a href="http://www.charterforcompassion.org/">Charter for Compassion</a> is modern syncretism's call to action. All it needs are some colorful icons and it will be as compelling for contemplation as the Sistine Chapel's frescos. The compassion movement also needs some archetypal characters like the ones in the <i>Star Wars</i> saga. I would suggest myself as such an archetype because I express compassion for the poor, unfortunate souls who cannot operate at my high level of morality.<br />
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<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pascal%27s_Wager">Pascal's Wager</a> for the existence of God does not overcome the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Epicurus#Epicurean_paradox">Epicurean paradox</a> of why an omnipotent deity would tolerate the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Problem_of_evil">problem of evil</a>. Theologians of many faiths are welcome to polylogue themselves over this quandry until the cows come home. Compassion activists will meanwhile be busy walking sacred labyrinths, accepting mindfulness, practicing yoga, and drinking masala chai tea (organic and fair trade certified, of course). All of these efforts will garner the usual results in human history, namely political upheavals and wars as <a href="http://www.fourthturning.com/">Fourth Turning</a> generational crises run roughshod over everyone's best intentions. We all certainly meant well. It's the thought that counts.</div>
Anthony Alfidihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11420163177787702821noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-478593238168336606.post-41815218410199995192015-11-11T21:59:00.000-08:002015-11-11T21:59:31.652-08:00The Haiku of OSINT for 11/11/15<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
Secret agent man<br />
Unbelievable movie<br />
Really popular</div>
Anthony Alfidihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11420163177787702821noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-478593238168336606.post-86778077480675562762015-11-11T16:39:00.000-08:002015-11-12T14:56:27.559-08:00Assessing The James Bond "Spectre" Film<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
I have never before watched a James Bond film in a theater. I now know why after seeing <i><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spectre_(2015_film)">Spectre</a></i> today at my local cineplex. I paid to watch an uninformed fantasy about intelligence work. Once is okay, because I learned enough. Here comes the first ever movie review on Third Eye OSINT.<br />
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We can begin with elements that would never make sense in the real world of intelligence. Geopolitical differences between rival powers somehow become irrelevant (the "Nine Eyes" sharing arrangement between the Anglo-West countries and presumably the BRICS bloc). Field agents and agency principals display a stunning naivete about pervasive digital surveillance (Bond, M, and Moneypenny discussing background research). Operatives discuss sensitive policy matters out in the open in unsecure areas in front of uncleared people (Bond and Q at the Austrian hotel with Dr. Swann). Technical specialists plug away on sensitive projects using computers whose displays are visible to anyone in a public area (Q typing while on the ski lift). Small caliber handguns can hit targets at enormously long ranges (the speedboat chasing the helicopter) and also blow up facilities the size of a city block (the hotel at the beginning, the desert facility at the end). All manner of vehicles are conveniently placed for a quick getaway (Bond's plane in snowy Austria, his helicopter at the desert facility, and his speedboat on the River Thames), and of course our hero always knows how to operate them. Our hero also always uses his real identity and is never under an assumed cover. He wastes no time getting under the covers with his female leads while their lives are obviously in danger. Yeah, find me a real intelligence system that operates this way.<br />
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The standard Bond film tropes are everywhere. The world's most famous secret agent wrecks his very expensive car, defeats a larger man in a fistfight, easily shoots multiple assailants without reloading, and saves his favorite woman just in time. The evil leader always reveals his entire sinister plan to Bond, and Bond gets away without breaking a sweat. It's great that Bond's women are becoming increasingly competent fighters in their own right. Female moviegoers need strong heroines, but the heroines still show glaring emotional weaknesses and need to be rescued from very improbable dangers. Dr. Swann inexplicably leaves the London safehouse to wander away from Bond, only to be captured for display. A truly competent operative would have either stayed at the safehouse during the operation's most crucial phase, or volunteered to go with Bond as backup. Alas, the plot always needs a traditional resolution, and the damsel in distress must always end up as the plot device motivating Bond's final heroics.<br />
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Monica Bellucci made an indelible impression while conducting the necessary exposition in Rome. She proves that desire knows no expiration date. Kudos to the producers for casting an older woman in a seductive role. Ms. Bellucci is much closer in age to Daniel Craig (Mr. Bond) than Lea Seydoux (Dr. Swann), so the romantic chemistry of an age-appropriate couple makes more sense. I also think Dave Bautista is getting typecast as the heavy who goes light on dialogue. I wouldn't want to fight the guy. Bond fought the guy on the train without getting a scratch or even getting the carnation dislodged from his jacket's lapel, but that's why he's Bond.<br />
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The James Bond franchise is great, mindless fun. Many American men who entered adult life without surrendering their adolescent imagination must see Bond as a role model. He always gets disciplined, suspended, or fired but somehow retains access to all of the resources he needs to do his job. The magical Bond narrative is great escapism for anyone who can't escape a boring life or defeat a petty tyrant at work. I overthink a lot of Hollywood product that isn't aimed at me.</div>
Anthony Alfidihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11420163177787702821noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-478593238168336606.post-49746990857978983572015-10-22T16:53:00.000-07:002015-10-22T16:53:19.288-07:00The Haiku of OSINT for 10/22/15<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
Cultural preference<br />
Six traits in the Middle East<br />
Soft power factors</div>
Anthony Alfidihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11420163177787702821noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-478593238168336606.post-28943551451458614352015-10-22T10:12:00.000-07:002015-10-22T10:12:59.938-07:00Relative Cultural Power: Iran, Saudi Arabia, Turkey<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
The tripartite struggle for leadership of the Islamic world between Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey rages on in the modern world. These regional powers probe each other's peripheries indirectly. Turkey's deliberate blind eye to the rise of ISIL, for example, was a gamble that instability in Shiite Syria would drain Iran's strategic strength. Regional powers also compete with cultural influence. Modern social science provides data for a useful comparison of these three nations' cultural "soft power" in their regional competition.<br />
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<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geert_Hofstede">Dutch social psychologist Geert Hofstede</a> has a lifetime of work on cultural power on <a href="http://www.geerthofstede.nl/">his personal website</a>. We don't have to go all the way to the Netherlands to use his wisdom. <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hofstede%27s_cultural_dimensions_theory">Hofstede's cultural dimensions theory</a> is a lens through which we can view a nation's cultural inclinations. Comparing the six Hofstede scores of Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey can tell us how they are likely to interact as regional powers. <a href="http://geert-hofstede.com/">The Hofstede Centre</a> has enough data on each of these countries to make meaningful comparisons.<br />
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I pulled the Hofstede Centre's country comparison drop-down menu for the three countries in question. I also viewed their data on the United States as a baseline for comparison. The US scores high on individualism, masculinity, and indulgence. Iran scores higher than the US on power distance and uncertainty avoidance. Saudi Arabia scores higher than the US on power distance, uncertainty avoidance, and long-term orientation. Turkey also scores higher than the US on power distance, uncertainty avoidance, and long-term orientation. The obvious first impression from this baseline comparison is that these three Middle Eastern powers have very different cultural priorities than the US. Their higher power distance scores predispose them to accept autocratic regimes. High preferences for uncertainty avoidance would favor maintenance of their existing social orders and formal rules, even if this comes at a high cost in economic losses or human suffering.<br />
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Comparing the three countries to each other reveals that Saudi Arabia has by far the highest power distance and masculinity. This implies that Saudi Arabia has the most to lose from disruptions to its social order by ISIL or other non-state actors, and that it would respond to such disruption in a more masculine way. Note that a masculine policy from Saudi Arabia is not necessarily the same as an effective military response. Saudi armed forces are notoriously ineffective, as their difficulties in combating Yemen's Houthi faction make clear. The strong Saudi commitment to fighting in Yemen leaves it strategically vulnerable to any ISIL penetration of its northern border. Any social stress from fighting an insurgency on two borders would be exceptionally acute for Saudi Arabia given its high Hofstede scored for masculinity and uncertainty avoidance.<br />
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<b>Third Eye OSINT assess that Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey will continue to prefer proxy fights against ISIL and each other in the near term.</b> The countries' strong preferences for maintaining social order, as measured by their Hofstede scores, currently outweigh any inclination to express their rivalry in more masculine forms like direct combat. Cultural norms offer one predictive approach in conjunction with other considerations of geostrategy, such as demographic pressures, economic cycles, and competition for resources. The three primary Middle Eastern rivals will continue to test each other's influence. Their cultural preferences indicate how severely they will react to existential threats from non-state actors like ISIL.</div>
Anthony Alfidihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11420163177787702821noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-478593238168336606.post-934459021287055142015-09-07T21:17:00.002-07:002015-09-07T21:17:38.910-07:00The Haiku of OSINT for 09/07/15<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
Interfaith talking<br />
Elite memes and images<br />
Instruct faithful flocks</div>
Anthony Alfidihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11420163177787702821noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-478593238168336606.post-4331483060775292502015-09-07T21:09:00.000-07:002015-09-07T21:09:38.318-07:00Interfaith NGOs In Diplomacy<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
Most humans are not designed for abstract reasoning. The ones who find it easy end up as global actors. The seriousness of international policy often lacks a softer side that allows ordinary people to connect. Interfaith dialogues fills that purpose for the large number of humans who need comforting imagery to galvanize their actions.<br />
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The <a href="http://www.un.org/en/events/interfaithharmonyweek/" rel="nofollow">UN-endorsed</a> <a href="http://worldinterfaithharmonyweek.com/">World Interfaith Harmony Week</a> gets the major religions talking instead of fighting. Islam and Christianity have <a href="http://www.acommonword.com/">A Common Word</a> as an agreement point. <a href="http://www.religionsforpeace.org/">Religions for Peace</a> is one of the most prominent NGOs gathering religious leaders for a subject they should hold dear. Christianity has skin in the game with the <a href="http://www.oikoumene.org/">World Council of Churches (WCC)</a> and the <a href="http://www.vatican.va/roman_curia/pontifical_councils/interelg/index.htm" rel="nofollow">Pontifical Council for Interreligious Dialogue (PCID)</a>.<br />
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I mention the elite-driven programs because my search for global interfaith organizations yielded mostly grassroots groups that have little connection to true globalism. It is quite alright for non-decision makers to busy themselves with interfaith dialogues, so long as the heavy lifting remains at the top. The smaller organizations can do little harm and may do some good if the elite organizations seed them with attractive memes.<br />
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The world's major monotheistic religions hold to parallel myths and mysteries. Disguised solar cults survive to this day in the halos around the icons of mythical founders. Comparative religious discussions are beyond the scope of Third Eye OSINT's geopolitics. Suffice it to say that religion exists and its utility as a social control mechanism does not escape the attention of global elites.</div>
Anthony Alfidihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11420163177787702821noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-478593238168336606.post-55976341654648741702015-07-28T22:32:00.000-07:002015-07-28T22:32:14.665-07:00The Haiku of OSINT for 07/28/15<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
Airdrop goes off course<br />
Materiel scattered far<br />
Bad guys get freebies</div>
Anthony Alfidihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11420163177787702821noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-478593238168336606.post-63076205120227986552015-04-05T22:11:00.002-07:002015-04-05T22:11:41.094-07:00The Haiku of OSINT for 04/05/15<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
Black swan at hotspot<br />
OSINT analyst tracking<br />
Expecting surprise</div>
Anthony Alfidihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11420163177787702821noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-478593238168336606.post-67498053345574764042015-04-05T21:37:00.000-07:002015-04-06T10:07:52.225-07:00Naval War College Foundation's Global Hotspots Symposium 2015 In San Francisco<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
I attended the <a href="http://www.nwcfoundation.org/">Naval War College Foundation</a>'s annual San Francisco seminar last month. This is the third time I've attended and this year's "Global Hotpots Symposium" delivered my money's worth. The photos below depict the day's action at the <a href="http://www.marineclub.com/">Marines' Memorial Club</a>. The comments below are paraphrased from the speakers, <b>with my own thoughts in bold text.</b><br />
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The first speaker described the insecurity plaguing the Middle East. Her factual descriptions of conditions in the region were impeccable. The story of ISIS's rise from the remnants of Al-Qaeda and the Al-Nusra Front in Syria is well-documented. <b>The Assad regime's brutal suppression of its own people was a factor the West must acknowledge.</b> ISIS captured billions in wealth from looting Iraqi assets in Mosul and draws fighters from around the world. Disproportionate numbers of wanna-be jihadis are coming from Tunisia, Morocco, and Lebanon. <br />
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<b>I disagree with expert assessments of ISIS's tactical and operational prowess. Photos of their "technical" gun trucks with anti-aircraft weapons hastily placed in pickup trucks show an amateurish approach to fire support. The gunners in the truck beds aim wildly without even using iron sights. They exhibit no evidence of combined arms maneuver despite claims of capturing US-made Iraqi armored vehicles and aircraft. I have seen no evidence in open sources of a logistics system ISIS uses to sustain its captured materiel. Terror tactics work against Iraqi forces with no ideological cohesion or nationalist sentiment of their own.</b><br />
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<b>I do agree with our NWCF speaker that ISIS excels at information operations. Erasing the Iraq-Syria border signals Arab rejection of Sykes-Picot colonialism. Executing POWs wearing orange jumpsuits symbolizes revenge for the perceived US humiliation of Muslim prisoners at Gitmo.</b><br />
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Syrian refugees have been straining civil society in Jordan and Lebanon for several years. Sunni Arab states may be turning against ISIS, at least among the Gulf sheikdoms. Turkey and Saudi Arabia could easily be decisive against ISIS if they act. <b>Saudi Arabia just committed more air and ground forces to fight the Houthis in Yemen than they ever committed against ISIS. The kingdom obviously believes Iranian influence to its south is a bigger threat than barbarians to its north.</b> The NWCF speaker astutely observed that the Sunni states tolerated ISIS's expansion as a way to pressure Iran.<br />
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Sunni ISIS fighters obviously target Shia. <b>I don't buy the argument that ISIS represents an existential threat to Iran that justifies Iran's pursuit of nuclear weapons. Tehran's threat of a nuclear program is more valuable as a strategic deterrent to Saudi Arabia and Turkey. I also don't buy arguments that ISIS cannot be destroyed with military force. They have a strategic-level center of gravity in Raqaa that a ground campaign can destroy. They also have financial channels from oil revenue and donations that the US can interdict.</b><br />
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Our speaker noted that ISIS's logistics system includes smuggling routes across Turkey's southern border. The anti-ISIS coalition's effort to retake Kobane makes decent strategic sense in that context. The coalition's failure to counter ISIS propaganda makes no sense; ISIS's narrative of romance, revenge, honor, and adventure appeals to disaffected youth.<br />
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The second NWCF speaker described recent tension between North Korea and South Korea over the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northern_Limit_Line">Northern Limit Line (NLL)</a>. He recapped recent Hermit Kingdom antics as a reminder that the country's "Byungjin line" requires a dual track of economic development and nuclear weapons. The world still cannot confirm whether the DPRK has installed a nuclear warhead on a ballistic missile.<br />
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The Korean War Armistice left the two Koreas' western maritime boundary undefined. The North has tested the US and ROK commitments to uphold the NLL several times. North Korea appears to have three aims: maintaining economic rights to fishing and crabbing waters; retaining Haeju's port access to save shipping costs on its maritime route with China; and maintaining the ease of dropping SOF on islands close to the ROK. <br />
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North Korea has zero interest in submitting its NLL objections to international mediation. Its KPA Navy is too weak to seize disputed islands outright from the ROK. The <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ROKS_Cheonan_sinking"><i>Cheonan</i> sinking incident</a> was the North's way of testing how much the US and ROK are willing to escalate after an obvious provocation. <b>I am unclear on whether the NLL represents an airspace boundary as well as a maritime one. I do not know whether the ROK has an <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Identification_friend_or_foe">identification friend or foe (IFF)</a> system compatible with US aircraft but common sense dictates that they should. <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Air_Defense_Identification_Zone#South_Korea">South Korea's declared ADIZ</a> clearly extends beyond the NLL, so any North Korean air-sea operation in the NLL's vicinity would demand a military response.</b><br />
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I attended a separate lunch discussion with a senior expert who shared his impressions of the Middle East from several tours. I was not surprised when he said the US underestimated the Sunni/Shia divide in Iraq. <b>I figured that out during my own tour, when it was obvious that Sunnis and Shias would not return to formerly mixed neighborhoods in Baghdad.</b> A similar sectarian fragmentation is not currently evident in Afghanistan. <b>That's the good news, provided the US can keep a token force there long enough to ensure there is no fragmentation.</b> The senior official's best success metrics in both Iraq and Afghanistan were not the number of successful troops in contact (TIC) reports or KIA counts. He valued statistics on local recruitment of military and security forces, along with school enrollment. Those successes proved that tribal leaders in either country accepted their government's legitimacy.<br />
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The third NWCF lecturer addressed the future of urban warfare. The most recent Israeli-Hamas war showed how targeting insurgents in cities often destroys infrastructure. <b>The US learned that the hard way in Iraq; just watch the many YouTube videos of JTACs calling for CAS on some building. We also learned that occupying forces end up owning government services, a lesson learned and forgotten in WWII.</b><br />
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Africa is rapidly becoming a laboratory where urban violence tests tribal and sectarian fault lines. Boko Haram's objective is larger than seizing Maiduguri. Their Islamist application of Sharia law appeals to people in corrupt parts of northern Nigeria who have grievances against Nigerian institutions. The larger story of how Chad and Niger carried the fight against Boko Haram must include Nigerian forces' failure to reinforce liberated towns. Al-Shabaab's resurgence is another story the West must hear, because that terror group still has a strong hold on Somalia and is now threatening Western malls after its Kenya mall attack.<br />
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Our lecturer endorsed US forces training its division-level formations in full-scale urban warfare. I searched Google for "sewer drone" to find tech options US forces can use in urban warfare. Advice from JAGs on ROE and targeting will be integral to urban warfare. Many of the asymmetric advantages the US brings to a conventional fight are negated when defenders have an advantage in urban terrain.<br />
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The final NWCF speaker addressed the possibility of a new Cold War in Russian-American relations. Russia has begun targeting military exercises at NATO areas. NATO's response has been to preposition equipment in Eastern Europe and step up Baltic air patrols. <b>Remember, folks, "NATO" has always been the US instrument for influencing Western Europe. Our European friends rarely take action to assert their interests without US leadership.</b> Russian opinion polls show a rapid shift against the US, but not so much against Europe until recently.<br />
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<b>Russia's national psyche has always been predisposed to insecurity and paranoia. I recently attended a gathering of Russian emigres in San Francisco. A lot of them truly believed that pedestrian traffic islands around town were some kind of conspiracy to launder money. It would have been funny if this wasn't indicative of multigenerational Russian paranoia about any official pronouncements.</b><br />
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The apotheosis of the "vatnik/vatnost" phenomenon represents how far Russia has regressed from its post-Cold War openness. <b>Search Google for those words to see an Internet meme celebrating the revival of reactionary, anti-intellectual traditions that Western materialism cannot vanquish. I won't link to the vatnost's retrograde image here, so go find it.</b> The West recognizes Russia's new belligerency and so do former members of the Warsaw Pact who resented Russian dominance.<br />
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<b>The West must understand why free market shock therapy worked in the Baltics and Poland but not Russia, Ukraine, or Belarus. I suspect the answer lies partly in the US's willingness to extend military cooperation to those successful states but prematurely curtailed Russia's NATO participation. A strong security link to the West would have made Russian-speaking elites feel safer about sticking with free market reforms. I may explore this theory in future blog articles if no one in the US foreign policy community picks it up.</b><br />
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<a href="http://www.amazon.com/Putins-Kleptocracy-Who-Owns-Russia/dp/1476795193">Karen Dawisha's <i>Putin's Kleptocracy</i></a> explores how Putin expropriated KGB funds. His recent admission that Russian forces invaded Crimea and provoked its secession prove his duplicity. <b><a href="http://20committee.com/">John Schindler's XX Committee</a> discusses the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chekism">Chekhism</a> of the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Silovik">Siloviki</a> around Putin, providing invaluable insights into Russia's ruling elite.</b> US reluctance to challenge Putin emboldens him despite Russia's obviously diminishing power. The NWCF expert believes Russia's geostrategic pivot is to its east given China's demand for Russian natural resources. He also believes this will lead to a divorce when they can no longer hide their rivalries. <b>I think that divorce will come sooner than anyone expects when China's economy crashes. I also noticed that many of my Russian-speaking friends in the San Francisco area often repeated Russian media narratives about Ukraine's supposed aggression and "Nazi Galitchina" nationalism. Russia definitely won the propaganda war with Russian language media in Ukraine and elsewhere.</b><br />
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All of the NWCF panelists combined for a final panel and took audience questions. Here come the panel's answers, in a stream of consciousness style with no unifying theme. More Middle East nations are at risk of collapse due to poor governance. The West cannot wear down Russia with spending programs like the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strategic_Defense_Initiative">Strategic Defense Initiative</a> because the US's ballistic missile defense plan just pumps up Russian nationalism. It's hard to assess the US response to North Korea's cyber actions. The ROK's heavy Internet connectivity is very vulnerable to cyber attack. <b>It is very interesting that piracy is more prevalent on Africa's west cost than its east coast (i.e., Somalia and the Horn of Africa).</b> The US still has substantial interests in anti-piracy, stability, and development in the Horn of Africa. The US Navy's Maritime Strategy mentions A2AD as a stalking horse for countering China, with less attention to civil affairs after budget cuts. China sees global hotspots differently than the US, with separatists in Xinjiang and Tibet figuring prominently. The US can slow but not stop Iran's march to acquiring nuclear weapons because Iran plays with the <a href="http://www.un.org/disarmament/WMD/Nuclear/NPT.shtml">Non-Proliferation Treaty</a>'s limits. It will be easy for Iran to get weapons-grade HEU if it can keep enrichment ability. Saudi Arabia and Egypt are likely to follow Iran into a nuclear arms race. Boko Haram's captive schoolgirls have either perished, dispersed, or returned home; many are still held captive. Arabs think the US State Department's information operations campaign against ISIS lacks credibility. ISIS has a heavy Twitter presence with thousands of sympathetic accounts. The human capacity to handle deprivation has postponed resource wars and ingenuity drives more efficient resource use. Russia's economy and demography won't support Putin's planned army expansion. The Obama Administration truly believes its electoral mandate is to avoid foreign relations.<br />
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This concludes my synopsis of the Naval War College's 2015 expedition to The City. A lot of black swans lurk in the world. Look at China's tensions with India, a delayed economic crisis over Greece's inevitable exit from the euro, and migrations from Central America to North America that challenge our southern border's security. US war colleges and private think tanks do a pretty good job of training American leaders to solve strategic problems. I will extend my own discussion of strategy here on Third Eye OSINT.<br />
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<i>Full disclosure: The opinions I express in this article reflect my own views and do not reflect the official positions of any US Government entity.</i></div>
Anthony Alfidihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11420163177787702821noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-478593238168336606.post-6618862831253743472015-04-03T22:17:00.000-07:002015-04-03T22:17:26.487-07:00The Haiku of OSINT for 04/03/15<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
New mercenary<br />
Replace hollow state functions<br />
Neofeudal force</div>
Anthony Alfidihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11420163177787702821noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-478593238168336606.post-56681315857941413312015-04-03T21:51:00.001-07:002015-04-03T21:51:59.074-07:00PMC Living Systems Enter Neofeudal Era<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<a href="http://www.seanmcfate.com/">Dr. Sean McFate</a>'s <i><a href="http://www.amazon.com/The-Modern-Mercenary-Private-Armies/dp/0199360103">The Modern Mercenary</a></i> describes how <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Private_military_company">private military companies (PMCs)</a> operate today. He is not alone in describing "neomedievalism" as one possible future, although I prefer the term "neofeudalism." One of Dr. McFate's key revelations is that PMCs are more than the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mercenary">mercenaries</a> of old or the <a href="http://www.history.ac.uk/reviews/review/1367">military enterprisers</a> who have trained forces since the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thirty_Years'_War">Thirty Years' War</a>. He believes that modern PMCs have the potential to expand conflicts by creating new demand for their services through extortion, piracy, and other means. I would like to explore likelihood that PMCs can supplant some functions of hollow states.<br />
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The <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Nations_Mercenary_Convention">UN Mercenary Convention</a> reflects nation-states' desire to maintain a monopoly on violence. Allowing private actors license to proliferate violence erodes nation-state legitimacy. The trouble with such limits is that states now face many challenges to their legitimacy. Sub-national conflicts among ethnic and religious minorities, epidemic diseases, transboundary water management, and other problems can overwhelm a state's management capabilities. Hollow states need help managing disorder as their systems degrade, and PMCs can fulfill a firebreak role that forestalls total state disintegration. Nation-states have the opportunity to update international law for PMCs that recognizes the roles they can play for hollow states.<br />
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Growth will come to the PMC sector with or without updated legal controls. Drones and cyber <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Botnet">botnets</a> are cheap, and private groups are skilled in their use. Privately owned tech under PMC control means darknet enterprises can fund more overt operations. Hollow states will not be able to detect, regulate, or tax such operations once they gain momentum.<br />
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It is easy to view PMCs as living systems much like parasites residing within a host body. The hollow state becomes the host. Smaller PMCs that remain virtual can exist almost exclusively in the cyber-electromagnetic domain. The ones that metastasize into paramilitary forces must have physical real estate to billet their forces and maintain equipment. The imperative to maintain garrisons within safe havens implies PMCs will try to capture hollow states in some way. Hollow states that are starved for funding or cannot maintain the rule of law will become prospective hosts for PMCs that need safe havens.<br />
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The leading candidates for PMC safe havens are those countries that rank poorly on scales like <a href="https://www.transparency.org/">Transparency International</a>'s Corruption Perceptions Index or the <a href="http://global.fundforpeace.org/">Fund for Peace</a>'s Fragile States Index. They are especially attractive host bodies if they are beset with sub-national conflicts that defy conventional resolution. PMCs will need constant flows of funds to maintain complex weapons and logistics systems as they grow to supplant nation-state conventional forces. These PMCs will naturally seek diverse revenue sources that weak states are willing to surrender in exchange for services. The revenue need not be from illicit sources like smuggling narcotics or contraband goods. The host-PMC relationship could be as benign as contracting for border control and customs enforcement functions that a hollow state can no longer perform. Such a beginning allows an ambitious PMC to manage the sub-national and trans-border relationships that will sustain it independently of a host nation's patronage.<br />
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The relationships between growing PMCs and declining states will be as complex as the emergence of feudal manors that supplanted the Western Roman Empire. Roman garrisons abandoned their frontier outposts when the Empire could no longer pay to keep them on duty. The milieu of Catholic bishops, Gothic tribes, and disenfranchised Roman lords were the PMC force providers of their day. Neofeudalism is the future of today's hollow states. Modern PMCs will evolve to fight the global guerrillas that hollow states are too weak to resist.</div>
Anthony Alfidihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11420163177787702821noreply@blogger.com