Fight Islamic State
Air power will not suffice
Need to send ground troops
Air power will not suffice
Need to send ground troops
Showing posts with label Islam. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Islam. Show all posts
Wednesday, September 10, 2014
Announcing America's New Counter-ISIL Strategy
The CEO of Alfidi Capital paid close attention to tonight's national address articulating a new strategy against ISIL. Third Eye OSINT stream-of-consciousness reaction to its major points was powered by pure genius. Stand by for a recap.
Making the case for emerging threats in the MENA region means understanding their sociocultural context. Radical Islam animates ISIL, pure and simple. Claiming it is not an authentic Islamic force invites ridicule in the souks of Cairo and Riyadh.
Citing barbaric tactics and genocide correctly places the threat in a category requiring international response. This supports international conventions dating back decades and more recent responsibility to protect (R2P) doctrine.
Air strikes are easy against equipment we recognize, i.e. captured US materiel. The US can quickly exhaust its high-value target list of easily identifiable vehicles. The harder part is destroying ISIL's very mobile C2 network of bad actors.
I like the word "destroy." The US must DESTROY any armed force that threatens violence against our homeland, national leadership, or citizens abroad. The widely-shared photo of someone outside the White House displaying ISIL's flag on a smartphone proves how easily a threat can reach our own C2 nodes.
The national leadership endorses strikes in Syria. Terrorists deserve no safe havens. Training and equipping proxy forces is not as easy as rhetoric makes it sound. The moderate Syrian opposition is mostly cut off and surrounded in many areas where it was formerly active, according to open source reporting.
I'm pretty sure I could assess Iraqi armed forces' condition from my laptop, using open media. US advisers knew the condition of the Iraqi partners they trained all throughout Operation Iraqi Freedom. Western journalists who have covered Iraq since the US troop withdrawal in 2011 knew about the endemic corruption and incompetence in the Iraqi military. NPR's Fresh Air broadcast today discussed this in detail.
Excuse me . . how and why are we enlisting Arab nations' help? Many Gulf sheikhs privately funded Syrian radicals who joined ISIL. Wealthy Kuwaitis and Qataris were willfully blind to the misuse of donated funds intended for humanitarian projects in Syria. There's nothing secret there and it's all in open source media.
Ruling out US ground forces lengthens the time needed for a counteroffensive. Unready Iraqi forces cannot carry the load until they can reconstitute in safe havens far from ISIL-controlled areas. This means extensive retraining under American supervision in either Kurdistan or the Shiite south of Iraq.
Referencing America's economic and scientific strength is obviously intended for a foreign audience, especially the Ebola comment. Foreign intelligence services will review the inventory of America's aid programs mentioned and ask their American ambassadors how they will benefit by joining this coalition of the willing.
Ending with "vanquished from the earth" is a good call that articulates a desired end state. The US is in "it to win it" but only with air power for the time being. Air campaigns against highly mobile urban insurgencies are not effective without ground forces conducting COIN in liberated territory. US planners will eventually realize the need to introduce competent ground forces. Active-duty US military members should not make vacation plans for 2015.
The American response to ISIL's emergent threat was delayed by a politically-driven unwillingness to acknowledge its potency. Echoes of that unwillingness remained audible in tonight's address. The National Security Council's mission is to synchronize threat warnings with a whole-of-government response to threats. Political operatives who supplant foreign policy professionals among NSC staffers are incapable of providing thereat warnings or staffing strong responses. The tragedy of America's new counter-ISIL policy is that it came long after the threat was obvious. It is still incomplete without a US ground force option.
This concludes today's commentary. Have a nice evening.
Saturday, May 17, 2014
US Conservatives Ally With Boko Haram And Refuse to #BringBackOurGirls
Boko Haram, a radical Islamist terror gang, abducted hundreds of Nigerian girls several weeks ago. The women of the US Senate gathered in support of the #BringBackOurGirls social media meme. This is so obviously a good idea that you'd think every decent American could see the wisdom in claiming the moral high ground. Alas, America's loudest conservative pundits registered their objections to the photo below.
Leading voices on the Right have denounced the photo and its meme as weak and pointless. They have no idea how wrong they are. Napoleon Bonaparte said it best: "The moral is to the physical as three to one." He meant that claiming the moral high ground is an absolute advantage in fighting a conflict. It clarifies strategic goals to allies and gives domestic morale a boost. The West is in a multi-decade struggle with radical Islam. Every time we demonstrate the moral clarity of Western Civilization, we rally neutral people in the developing world to our cause and force jihadis to explain their atrocities.
The anti-female rhetoric I've heard from my conservative colleagues on this photo is disgusting. They sound pathetic by trotting out old misogynistic stereotypes that working women have tried hard to banish. The language some Americans have used to describe the Senators is the kind of verbiage a Salafist sheikh might use to describe his harem. That is not the face America should present to the world.
These hashtags aren't just photo ops anymore. Social media that goes viral now drives strategic decision making. This is the power of "information operations" and I assure you that plenty of people in the US national security establishment take crafting these narratives very seriously. If you disagree, consider how the US will benefit once we share credit for the girls' safe return.
I'd like to know if any of my fellow conservatives see the irony in all of these anti-hashtag comments in light of the Democratic Party's charge that the GOP engages in a "war on women." I've seen a bunch of comments criticizing women for wanting girls to be safe. Meanwhile, the US is doing what it can to help Nigerians bring them back. Do any of you see how getting behind this message sends a powerful signal to Africans who wonder whether the US stands with their hopes? Seriously, I'd like some answers.
Do any of you conservatives know what millions of Africans are saying right now? They are openly questioning the radical Islamic groups that have grown throughout the continent. They do that specifically because of this incident's notoriety. Getting Americans on the right side of that message is a powerful adjunct to our diplomacy. Do you people really not see this?
This isn't about Benghazi. I'm less interested in placing blame for past oversights than in solving a present problem. American leaders made plenty of missteps in the Cold War but our bipartisan foreign policy won in the end partly because our messaging to the world was based on a morally sound foundation. Messages of freedom, dignity, and prosperity matter, just as Ronald Reagan taught us with "Morning in America." Ronald Reagan also taught us that America would not tolerate Islamic terrorists getting away with the Achille Lauro hijacking; he told other would-be murderers, "You can run, but you can't hide." I believe the Gipper would be totally on board with hunting down Boko Haram fighters and rescuing their captive girls.
I'm throwing it down right now, people. Anyone who disagrees with what these women Senators have to say in their hashtag should put up a photo of themselves with a #Don'tBringBackTheGirls tag. I dare you to do something that stupid. See how well that plays in 2016 when Hillary's operatives run the "GOP anti-women" canard all over again. I am amazed that Republicans are willing to cede the moral high ground to both Democrats and Boko Haram out of pure spite. Conservatives should be better than this if they are to convince Americans that the GOP is fit to govern.
It is true that US foreign assistance programs are sometimes messy. It is difficult to advance a freedom agenda in authoritarian countries. We succeeded in countries like South Korea and Thailand even though they had military governments for part of their modern history. Engagement is hard. The alternative is to cede contested countries to powers that have clear anti-West agendas. I'll take the 50% solution if I think it can get to 100% with continued US involvement.
Republicans can't seem to say anything positive about Administration figures who have this crisis on their radar. Hmmm, the Democrats are doing nothing but tweeting? I guess the Democratic President who directed our national security team to work with the Nigerians doesn't count. I know exactly how capable the US can be and that's why all of the partisan criticism I'm seeing here is handcuffing the GOP.
Partisanship during the Cold War stopped at the water's edge, and our bipartisan foreign policy won that competition with the Soviet Union. Today's conservatives (thanks to some Tea Party nutcases) have so little positive news to offer America that they can't resist harassing our own female political leaders. American conservatives have done a whole lot more than make themselves look like fools. They have missed a golden opportunity to demonstrate American resolve in the face of the violent jihadi movements they claim to hate so much. The conservative loudmouths criticizing the #BringBackOurGirls meme have a profoundly immature understanding of information operations. They have in fact aligned themselves in support of Boko Haram.
Leading voices on the Right have denounced the photo and its meme as weak and pointless. They have no idea how wrong they are. Napoleon Bonaparte said it best: "The moral is to the physical as three to one." He meant that claiming the moral high ground is an absolute advantage in fighting a conflict. It clarifies strategic goals to allies and gives domestic morale a boost. The West is in a multi-decade struggle with radical Islam. Every time we demonstrate the moral clarity of Western Civilization, we rally neutral people in the developing world to our cause and force jihadis to explain their atrocities.
The anti-female rhetoric I've heard from my conservative colleagues on this photo is disgusting. They sound pathetic by trotting out old misogynistic stereotypes that working women have tried hard to banish. The language some Americans have used to describe the Senators is the kind of verbiage a Salafist sheikh might use to describe his harem. That is not the face America should present to the world.
These hashtags aren't just photo ops anymore. Social media that goes viral now drives strategic decision making. This is the power of "information operations" and I assure you that plenty of people in the US national security establishment take crafting these narratives very seriously. If you disagree, consider how the US will benefit once we share credit for the girls' safe return.
I'd like to know if any of my fellow conservatives see the irony in all of these anti-hashtag comments in light of the Democratic Party's charge that the GOP engages in a "war on women." I've seen a bunch of comments criticizing women for wanting girls to be safe. Meanwhile, the US is doing what it can to help Nigerians bring them back. Do any of you see how getting behind this message sends a powerful signal to Africans who wonder whether the US stands with their hopes? Seriously, I'd like some answers.
Do any of you conservatives know what millions of Africans are saying right now? They are openly questioning the radical Islamic groups that have grown throughout the continent. They do that specifically because of this incident's notoriety. Getting Americans on the right side of that message is a powerful adjunct to our diplomacy. Do you people really not see this?
This isn't about Benghazi. I'm less interested in placing blame for past oversights than in solving a present problem. American leaders made plenty of missteps in the Cold War but our bipartisan foreign policy won in the end partly because our messaging to the world was based on a morally sound foundation. Messages of freedom, dignity, and prosperity matter, just as Ronald Reagan taught us with "Morning in America." Ronald Reagan also taught us that America would not tolerate Islamic terrorists getting away with the Achille Lauro hijacking; he told other would-be murderers, "You can run, but you can't hide." I believe the Gipper would be totally on board with hunting down Boko Haram fighters and rescuing their captive girls.
I'm throwing it down right now, people. Anyone who disagrees with what these women Senators have to say in their hashtag should put up a photo of themselves with a #Don'tBringBackTheGirls tag. I dare you to do something that stupid. See how well that plays in 2016 when Hillary's operatives run the "GOP anti-women" canard all over again. I am amazed that Republicans are willing to cede the moral high ground to both Democrats and Boko Haram out of pure spite. Conservatives should be better than this if they are to convince Americans that the GOP is fit to govern.
It is true that US foreign assistance programs are sometimes messy. It is difficult to advance a freedom agenda in authoritarian countries. We succeeded in countries like South Korea and Thailand even though they had military governments for part of their modern history. Engagement is hard. The alternative is to cede contested countries to powers that have clear anti-West agendas. I'll take the 50% solution if I think it can get to 100% with continued US involvement.
Republicans can't seem to say anything positive about Administration figures who have this crisis on their radar. Hmmm, the Democrats are doing nothing but tweeting? I guess the Democratic President who directed our national security team to work with the Nigerians doesn't count. I know exactly how capable the US can be and that's why all of the partisan criticism I'm seeing here is handcuffing the GOP.
Partisanship during the Cold War stopped at the water's edge, and our bipartisan foreign policy won that competition with the Soviet Union. Today's conservatives (thanks to some Tea Party nutcases) have so little positive news to offer America that they can't resist harassing our own female political leaders. American conservatives have done a whole lot more than make themselves look like fools. They have missed a golden opportunity to demonstrate American resolve in the face of the violent jihadi movements they claim to hate so much. The conservative loudmouths criticizing the #BringBackOurGirls meme have a profoundly immature understanding of information operations. They have in fact aligned themselves in support of Boko Haram.
Saturday, July 20, 2013
Turkey's Identity Crisis On The Brink
Turkey is clearly at a cultural crossroads. On one hand, its political elite has clearly moved the country in a more Islamic direction and taken steps to mute the military's role as guardian of the government's secular orientation. On the other hand, the recent demonstrations against development of Taksim Gezi Park reveal that a remnant of the society is not willing to go peacefully into an ultra-conservative future.
Modern Turkey had all of the outward trappings of a tolerant society and reliable Western security partner throughout the second half of the 20th century. Turkey has sought EU membership for over a quarter-century. The Erdogan government's embrace of conservative moral codes that align explicitly with Islam jeopardize its pursuit of that membership. Turkey even developed security ties with Israel; it threw that productive relationship away with tacit support for Gaza blockade runners. Turkish-Israeli reconciliation is still a possibility, and unofficial cooperation against common threats (Syria, Iran) is always a possibility.
The reconstruction plans for the park involve erecting a shopping mall modeled after the Halil Pasha Artillery Barracks. This is more than a post-modern tribute to Turkey's Ottoman past. Every major policy initiative of the Erdogan government, from its stance on public morals to its support for anti-Assad rebels in Syria, is a step towards Turkey's reassertion of its pre-Ataturk identity as the center of the Caliphate. Turkey's political elite is ready to embrace Islam and regional interventionism and is willing to drag its secular professionals along for the ride. The national identity crisis is ready for resolution, one way or the other.
The Erdogan government's forceful handling of the protestors has not yet carried the day for order. It remains to be seen just how much of Istanbul's educated, secular middle class will continue to suspend their economic lives and risk arrest or injury. Sustained popular uprisings usually begin with widespread labor or bourgeoisie economic grievances in provincial areas and eventually encroach upon a national capital. These protestors have cultural grievances but are economically secure. There is some evidence their protests are spreading to the rest of Turkey. Arab Spring protestors wanted cheaper food staples and more jobs. This protest has little in common with the Arab Spring. Turkey ranks higher than the world average on the Heritage Index and Turkey's GDP growth in recent years has been very healthy, although FDI is dropping precipitously and inflation is rising.
Erdogan's statesmanship on peacefully resolving the Kurdish issue has probably endeared him to many Turks who are weary of years of unrest. Turkey's international standing and internal business climate will be enhanced by stability in its Kurdish regions, park protests notwithstanding. Secular Turks outside Istanbul would be hard-pressed to ignore this significant diplomatic progress just to continue sympathizing with protestors.
The protestors in Istanbul have a limited window of opportunity to make their case for moderation to the rest of Turkey's secular middle class. The Erdogan government has demonstrated its willingness to disperse the protestors and the rest of Turkey probably won't mind so long as the economy delivers prosperity. The race between worsening economic data and a government determined to bring order is still on. The Erdogan government can make non-fatal concessions on cultural issues that would address several of the capital protestors' grievances and split much of the national opposition. That may be enough to calm things down without a hard crackdown that would further damage the economy.
Modern Turkey had all of the outward trappings of a tolerant society and reliable Western security partner throughout the second half of the 20th century. Turkey has sought EU membership for over a quarter-century. The Erdogan government's embrace of conservative moral codes that align explicitly with Islam jeopardize its pursuit of that membership. Turkey even developed security ties with Israel; it threw that productive relationship away with tacit support for Gaza blockade runners. Turkish-Israeli reconciliation is still a possibility, and unofficial cooperation against common threats (Syria, Iran) is always a possibility.
The reconstruction plans for the park involve erecting a shopping mall modeled after the Halil Pasha Artillery Barracks. This is more than a post-modern tribute to Turkey's Ottoman past. Every major policy initiative of the Erdogan government, from its stance on public morals to its support for anti-Assad rebels in Syria, is a step towards Turkey's reassertion of its pre-Ataturk identity as the center of the Caliphate. Turkey's political elite is ready to embrace Islam and regional interventionism and is willing to drag its secular professionals along for the ride. The national identity crisis is ready for resolution, one way or the other.
The Erdogan government's forceful handling of the protestors has not yet carried the day for order. It remains to be seen just how much of Istanbul's educated, secular middle class will continue to suspend their economic lives and risk arrest or injury. Sustained popular uprisings usually begin with widespread labor or bourgeoisie economic grievances in provincial areas and eventually encroach upon a national capital. These protestors have cultural grievances but are economically secure. There is some evidence their protests are spreading to the rest of Turkey. Arab Spring protestors wanted cheaper food staples and more jobs. This protest has little in common with the Arab Spring. Turkey ranks higher than the world average on the Heritage Index and Turkey's GDP growth in recent years has been very healthy, although FDI is dropping precipitously and inflation is rising.
Erdogan's statesmanship on peacefully resolving the Kurdish issue has probably endeared him to many Turks who are weary of years of unrest. Turkey's international standing and internal business climate will be enhanced by stability in its Kurdish regions, park protests notwithstanding. Secular Turks outside Istanbul would be hard-pressed to ignore this significant diplomatic progress just to continue sympathizing with protestors.
The protestors in Istanbul have a limited window of opportunity to make their case for moderation to the rest of Turkey's secular middle class. The Erdogan government has demonstrated its willingness to disperse the protestors and the rest of Turkey probably won't mind so long as the economy delivers prosperity. The race between worsening economic data and a government determined to bring order is still on. The Erdogan government can make non-fatal concessions on cultural issues that would address several of the capital protestors' grievances and split much of the national opposition. That may be enough to calm things down without a hard crackdown that would further damage the economy.
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